Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/153874 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2012
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 1441
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
The global financial crisis has led to a revival of the empirical literature on current account imbalances. This paper contributes to that literature by investigating the importance of evaluating model and parameter uncertainty prior to reaching any firm conclusion. We explore three alternative econometric strategies: examining all models, selecting a few, and combining them all. Out of thousands (or indeed millions) of models a story emerges. Prior to the financial crisis, current account positions of major economies such as the US, UK, Japan and China were not aligned with fundamentals.
Schlagwörter: 
current account
global imbalances
model combination
Model uncertainty
panel data
JEL: 
C11
C33
F32
F34
F41
O52
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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