Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/153777 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2011
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 1343
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper examines the out‐of‐sample forecast performance of sectoral stock market indicators for real GDP, private consumption and investment growth up to 4 quarters ahead in the US and the euro area. Our findings are that the predictive content of sectoral stock market indicators: i) is potentially strong, particularly for the financial sector, and is stronger than that of financial spreads; ii) varies over time, with a substantial improvement after 1999 for the euro area; iii) is stronger for investment than for private consumption; and iv) is stronger in the euro area than in the United States.
Schlagwörter: 
consumption and investment
euro area
forecasting real GDP
sectoral stock prices
stock market valuation metrics
US
JEL: 
C53
E37
G12
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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