Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153449
Authors: 
Arratibel, Olga
Kamps, Christophe
Leiner-Killinger, Nadine
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1015
Abstract: 
To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and nonmonetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons.
Subjects: 
Fiscal Policy
Inflation forecasting
information content of money
leading indicators
monetary policy
new EU member states
JEL: 
C53
E31
E37
E51
E52
E62
P24
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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