Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153378
Authors: 
Christoffel, Kai
Coenen, Günter
Warne, Anders
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 944
Abstract: 
In this paper, we outline a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area designed for use in the (Broad) Macroeconomic Projection Exercises regularly undertaken by ECB/Eurosystem staff. We present estimation results for the NAWM that are obtained by employing Bayesian inference methods and document the properties of the estimated model by reporting its impulse-response functions and forecast-error-variance decompositions, by inspecting the model-based sample moments, and by examining the model’s forecasting performance relative to a number of benchmarks, including a Bayesian VAR. We finally consider several applications to illustrate the potential contributions the NAWM can make to forecasting and policy analysis.
Subjects: 
Bayesian inference
DSGE modelling
euro area
forecasting
open-economy macroeconomics
policy analysis
JEL: 
C11
C32
E32
E37
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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