Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/153316 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 882
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
Schlagwörter: 
Factor models
forecasts
Time series models
World trade
JEL: 
C53
C32
E37
F17
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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