Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153316
Authors: 
Burgert, Matthias
Dées, Stéphane
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 882
Abstract: 
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows.
Subjects: 
Factor models
forecasts
Time series models
World trade
JEL: 
C53
C32
E37
F17
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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