Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/153310 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2008
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 876
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper evaluates how well sectoral stock prices forecast future economic activity compared to traditional predictors such as the term spread, dividend yield, exchange rates and money growth. The study is applied to euro area financial asset prices and real economic growth, covering the period 1973 to 2006. The paper finds that the term spread is the best predictor of future growth in the period leading up to the introduction of Monetary Union. After 1999, however, sectoral stock prices in general provide more accurate forecasts than traditional asset price measures across all forecast horizons.
Schlagwörter: 
asset prices
forecasting models
JEL: 
C52
C53
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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