Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/153012
Authors: 
Berger, Helge
Ehrmann, Michael
Fratzscher, Marcel
Year of Publication: 
2006
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 578
Abstract: 
Monetary policy in the euro area is conducted within a multi-country, multicultural, and multi-lingual context involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand and to anticipate monetary policy by the ECB? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters in 24 countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and clustering around informational hubs, as well as to country-specific economic conditions and traditions of independent central banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some systematic differences between analysts have been transitional and are indicative of learning, others are more persistent.
Subjects: 
ECB
forecast
geography
heterogeneity
History
monetary policy
JEL: 
E52
E58
G14
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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