Adalid, Ramón Coenen, Günter McAdam, Peter Siviero, Stefano
Year of Publication:
ECB Working Paper 479
In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimised interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area which differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioural elements and adherence to micro-foundations. Our findings are broadly consistent with results documented for models of the U.S. economy: backward-looking models require relatively more aggressive policies with at most moderate inertia; rules that are optimised for such models tend to perform reasonably well in forward-looking models, while the reverse is not necessarily true; and, hence, the operating characteristics of robust rules (i.e., rules that perform satisfactorily in all models) are heavily weighted towards those required by backward-looking models.
euro area macroeconomic modelling Model uncertainty monetary policy rules Robustness