Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152817
Authors: 
Levin, Andrew T.
Natalucci, Fabio M.
Piger, Jeremy M.
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 383
Abstract: 
We find evidence that adopting an explicit inflation objective plays a role in anchoring long-run inflation expectations and in reducing the intrinsic persistence of inflation. For the period 1994-2003, private-sector long-run inflation forecasts exhibit significant correlation with lagged inflation for a number of industrial economies, including the United States. In contrast, this correlation is largely absent for the five countries that maintained explicit inflation objectives over this period, indicating that these central banks have been reasonably successful in delinking expectations from realized inflation. We also show that the null hypothesis of a random walk in core CPI inflation can be clearly rejected for four of these five countries, but not for most of the other industrial countries. Finally, we provide some evidence concerning the initial effects of the adoption of explicit inflation objectives in a number of emerging-market economies.
Subjects: 
Consensus Forecasts
inflation expectations
inflation persistence
JEL: 
E31
E52
E58
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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