Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/152741
Authors: 
Strauch, Rolf
Hallerberg, Mark
von Hagen, Jürgen
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 307
Abstract: 
We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles.
Subjects: 
budget processes
Fiscal forecasting
forecast evaluation
Stability and Growth Pact
JEL: 
C53
E17
H62
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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