Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/152681 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2003
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 247
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
Monitoring and forecasting price developments in the euro area is essential in the light of the second pillar of the ECB's monetary policy strategy. This study analyses whether the forecasting accuracy of forecasting aggregate euro area inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to forecasting the aggregate HICP directly. The analysis includes univariate and multivariate linear time series models and distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are employed to select models for the aggregate and the disaggregate components. The results indicate that aggregating forecasts by component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead.
Schlagwörter: 
Euro Area Inflation
HICP subindex forecast aggregation
linear time series models
JEL: 
E31
E37
C53
C32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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