Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/152668 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2003
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 234
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria: if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.
Schlagwörter: 
Hysteresis
Markov switching
Transition
Unemployment
Unit Root
JEL: 
E24
C22
C23
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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