Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/149886
Authors: 
Heinisch, Katja
Scheufele, Rolf
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
IWH Discussion Papers 5/2017
Abstract: 
In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.
Subjects: 
mixed-frequency VAR
real-time data
nowcasting
forecasting
JEL: 
C53
C55
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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