Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/149611
Authors: 
Cervellati, Matteo
Sunde, Uwe
Zimmermann, Klaus F.
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
ZEF-Discussion Papers on Development Policy 226
Abstract: 
This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.
Subjects: 
secular stagnation
long-term development
income growth
demographic transition
JEL: 
C54
E10
J11
J 13
J18
N30
O10
O40
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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