Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/148275
Authors: 
Haile, Fiseha
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Economics Discussion Papers 2016-47
Abstract: 
Plummeting commodity prices, China's economic malaise, and global financial market turbulence have recently wreaked havoc on African economies. This paper investigates whether, and to what extent, these intertwined shocks spillover into the Tanzanian economy. The author finds that a 1 percentage point (ppts) drop in China's investment growth is associated with a decline in Tanzania's export growth of roughly 0.60 ppts. A 1 percent fall in commodity prices leads to 0.65 percent lower exports value. The results suggest that a hard landing of the Chinese economy to its 'new normal' would doubtless send shock waves through the Tanzanian economy by further driving down commodity demand and prices as well as lowering development finance. In contrast, financial market volatility has a fairly negligible impact on economic growth. The main results stand up well to a wide-array of robustness checks.
Subjects: 
China
Tanzania
commodity prices
investment
exports
cointegrated VAR model
JEL: 
C32
F4
O11
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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