ISER Discussion Paper, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University 886
Using an overlapping generations model, this paper describes interactions between naïve and sophisticated hyperbolic discounters in general equilibrium. The naïfs, who overestimate their future propensity to save and hence over-forecast the future equilibrium asset prices, are exploited through capital transactions by sophisticates, who correctly forecast the future asset prices by incorporating the naïfs' mis-forecasts. Due to the capital losses, the naïfs fall into bankruptcy when they are highly present-biased, highly patient, and small in proportion. Under permissive conditions, the equilibrium is shown to be globally stable and Pareto inefficient in the ex-post sense.
Bankruptcy Hyperbolic discounting Naïf Sophisticate General equilibrium