Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/148135
Authors: 
Champagne, Julien
Poulin-Bellisle, Guillaume
Sekkel, Rodrigo
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2016-28
Abstract: 
We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada's staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Alternatively, revisions from purely statistical methods to estimate the gap have not experienced the same drop in magnitude. We then examine the usefulness of real-time gap estimates for forecasting inflation and find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projections are conditioned on real time rather than on final estimates of the gap.
Subjects: 
Potential output
Central bank research
Econometric and statistical method
JEL: 
C38
E17
E32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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