Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146905
Authors: 
Fischer, Christoph
Hossfeld, Oliver
Radeck, Karin
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper, Deutsche Bundesbank 36/2016
Abstract: 
Real exports are commonly specified as depending on an indicator of price competitiveness and on a measure of foreign activity. This study empirically investigates the suitability of alternative competitiveness indicators in explaining real exports for a broad group of advanced economies. To this end, a panel cointegration analysis is conducted, augmented by a forecasting exercise. In the latter, repeated sampling techniques are used in order to avoid arbitrary sample splits. We find that broad price- and cost-based indicators are to be preferred to narrow price based measures such as CPI- or PPI-deflated real exchange rates. Furthermore, the evidence points towards using world trade as the external activity variable instead of GDP- or real imports-based measures.
Subjects: 
international price competitiveness
real export demand
price elasticity of exports
JEL: 
C23
F14
F31
F47
ISBN: 
978-3-95729-300-8
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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