Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146603
Authors: 
Bouras, David
Year of Publication: 
2015
Citation: 
[Journal:] Atlantic Review of Economics [ISSN:] 2174-3835 [Volume:] 2 [Year:] 2015 [Pages:] 1-19
Abstract: 
This paper seeks to enhance forecast accuracy by combining three individual forecasting models. These models include: the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model (GARCH), and the Census X11 model. Applied to the Moroccan coastal fish production, the empirical results show that in terms of predictive ability the composite model outperforms the individual forecasting models. In addition, the results reveal that the forecast accuracy gains arising from combining the individual forecasts range from nearly 8% to over 95%.
Subjects: 
forecasting
composite model
fish production
JEL: 
C53
C59
Q22
Document Type: 
Article

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