Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/146421
Authors: 
Lachaud, Michée Arnold
Bravo-Ureta, Boris E.
Ludena, Carlos E.
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
IDB Working Paper Series IDB-WP-607
Abstract: 
This study estimates Climate Adjusted Total Factor Productivity (CATFP) for agriculture in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries, while also providing comparisons with several regions of the world. Climatic variability is introduced in Stochastic Production Frontier (SPF) models by including average annual maximum temperature, precipitation and its monthly intra-year standard deviations, and the number of rainy days. Climatic conditions have a negative impact on production becoming stronger at the end of the 2000s compared to earlier periods. An Error Correction Model is applied to investigate catch-up and convergence across LAC countries. Argentina defines the frontier in LAC and TFP convergence is found across all South American countries, Costa Rica, Mexico, Barbados and The Bahamas. Using IPCC 2014 scenarios, the study shows that climatic variability induces significant reductions in productivity (2.3% to 10.7%), over the 2013-2040 period. Estimated output losses due to climatic variability range from 9% to 20% in the LAC region depending on the scenario considered.
Subjects: 
Agriculture
Total Factor Productivity
Stochastic Production Frontiers
Climate Effects
Convergence
Forecasting
Latin America and the Caribbean
JEL: 
D24
Q54
O47
E27
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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