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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
SFB 649 Discussion Paper No. 2016-015
Verlag: 
Humboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk, Berlin
Zusammenfassung: 
His paper introduces structural VAR analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations. We show that U.S. consumers' inflation expectations are anchored in the long run because macro-news shocks are long-run neutral for long-term inflation expectations. The identification of structural shocks helps to explain why inflation expectations deviate from the central bank's target in the short run. Our results indicate that the recent decline of long-term inflation expectations does not result from deanchoring macro-news but can be attributed to downward adjustments of consumers' expectations about the central bank's inflation target.
Schlagwörter: 
Inflation Expectations
Michigan Survey
Structural VAR
Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity
JEL: 
E31
E52
E58
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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