Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/145888
Authors: 
Glas, Alexander
Hartmann, Matthias
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2016: Demographischer Wandel - Session: Inflation D16-V3
Abstract: 
We analyze the determinants of average individual inflation uncertainty and disagreement based on data from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. We empirically confirm the implication from a theoretical decomposition of inflation uncertainty that disagreement is an incomplete approximation to overall uncertainty. Both measures are associated with macroeconomic conditions and indicators of monetary policy, but the relations differ qualitatively. In particular, average individual inflation uncertainty is higher during periods of expansionary monetary policy, whereas disagreement rises during contractionary periods.
JEL: 
E31
E52
E58
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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