Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/144932
Authors: 
Fichtner, Ferdinand
Steffen, Christoph Große
Hachula, Michael
Junker, Simon
Kirby, Simon
Michelsen, Claus
Rieth, Malte
Schlaak, Thore
Warren, James
Year of Publication: 
2016
Citation: 
[Journal:] DIW Economic Bulletin [ISSN:] 2192-7219 [Volume:] 6 [Year:] 2016 [Issue:] 31 [Pages:] 359-362
Abstract: 
As a result of Britain's decision to leave the EU, global economic output is likely to grow at a somewhat slower pace than anticipated. The decision will have consequences for the UK and for the euro area in particular; this is also confirmed by simulations produced by the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM). An expected deterioration of economic relations-especially between the UK and the EU-and the associated increase in uncertainty have led to greater investment restraint. This has been accompanied by a devaluation of the British pound. Both will inhibit the development of the German economy with its strong focus on foreign trade. It will also dampen domestic investment and result in a lower level of consumption due to slightly weaker real wage growth. All in all, the German economy is likely to grow at a slower rate than previously predicted due to the Brexit decision. Growth is forecasted to be 0.1 percentage points lower in 2016 and 0.3 percentage points lower in 2017.
Subjects: 
business cycle forecast
economic outlook
Brexit
European Integration
JEL: 
E32
E66
F01
Document Type: 
Article

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