Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/144365
Authors: 
Monti, Francesca
Year of Publication: 
2008
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper Research 153
Abstract: 
This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Subjects: 
forecasting
judgment
structural models
Kalman Filter
real time
JEL: 
C32
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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