Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/142330
Authors: 
López-Pérez, Víctor
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Economics Discussion Papers 2016-29
Abstract: 
This paper explores how changes in macroeconomic uncertainty have affected the decision to reply to the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB's SPF). The results suggest that higher (lower) aggregate uncertainty increases (reduces) non-response to the survey. This effect is statistically and economically significant. Therefore, the assumption that individual ECB's SPF data are missing at random may not be appropriate. Moreover, the forecasters that perceive more individual uncertainty seem to have a lower likelihood of replying to the survey. Consequently, measures of uncertainty computed from individual ECB's SPF data could be biased downwards.
Subjects: 
Non-response
uncertainty
Survey of Professional Forecasters
European Central Bank
JEL: 
D81
D84
E66
Creative Commons License: 
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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