Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/142249
Authors: 
Kleis, Mischa
Moessinger, Marc-Daniel
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047
Abstract: 
We contribute to the literature on the long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth by applying a novel method for quantitative case studies. Relying on a qualitative (narrative) definition of fiscal consolidations based on an examination of historical policy documents and using the synthetic control method (SCM), we investigate the evolution of post-consolidation trajectories of economic growth in six case studies of OECD countries. In contrast to recent studies that reject the hypothesis of non-Keynesian effects, our results do not offer clear-cut evidence on the long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth. Half of the case studies point to a positive effect with the other half indicating a negative effect. We further do not find a specific effect of the strength of the fiscal adjustment and the type of consolidation, i.e., whether the consolidation is rather based on expenditure cuts or revenue increases.
Subjects: 
economic growth
fiscal adjustment
fiscal consolidation
synthetic control method
JEL: 
O40
E62
H60
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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