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Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 5902
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
The paper argues that persistent current account surpluses and increasing foreign currency-denominated asset positions constitute long-term appreciation expectations on yuan and yen, which have made China and Japan vulnerable to U.S. interest rate cuts and appreciation expectation shocks. For both China and Japan – at different points of time – self-fulfilling runs into yuan and yen have triggered monetary policy expansions, which are identified as the breeding ground for overinvestment, speculative bubbles and post-bubble secular stagnation. To prevent a similar scenario for China capital controls, a tighter monetary policy and a fixed exchange rate regime are recommended.
Schlagwörter: 
China
Japan
exchange rate policy
bubble economy
overinvestment
Hayek low interest rate policy
secular stagnation
capital controls
rebalancing
JEL: 
E32
E42
E58
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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