Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/141849
Authors: 
Aksoy, Yunus
Basso, Henrique S.
Smith, Ron P.
Grasl, Tobias
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 5872
Abstract: 
The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a Panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identification of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects. Young and old dependants are found to have a negative impact while workers contribute positively. We propose a theoretical model, highlighting the relationship between demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and reduced fertility is found to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.
Subjects: 
population age profile
medium-term
output growth
innovation
life-cycle
Kuznets cycles
JEL: 
E32
J11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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