Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/130622
Authors: 
Anatolyev, Stanislav
Gospodinov, Nikolay
Jamali, Ibrahim
Liu, Xiaochun
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2015-6
Abstract: 
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability than raw returns. We allow the two components to respond to currency-specific risk factors and use the joint conditional distribution of these components to obtain forecasts of future carry trade returns. Our results suggest that the decomposition model produces higher forecast and directional accuracy than any of the competing models. We show that the forecasting gains translate into economically and statistically significant (risk-adjusted) profitability when trading individual currencies or forming currency portfolios based on the predicted returns from the decomposition model.
Subjects: 
exchange rate forecasting
carry trade
positions of traders
return decomposition
copula
joint predictive distribution
JEL: 
F31
F37
C32
C53
G15
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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