Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 100.2015
The security of energy supply is a key geopolitical factor in the relationship between the European Union and the southern neighborhood countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. We study the response of eight Mediterranean economies to exogenous oil supply shocks. We focus on the effects on economic activity - as measured by real Gross Value Added - for the whole economy, as well as for selected industries. We show that there are clear patterns characterizing the response of different economies to an unexpected reduction in global oil production. The main determinants of these patterns are the degree of energy intensity and energy dependence of the country, as well as the composition of its Gross Value Added.