Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/130014
Authors: 
Vikström, Johan
Ridder, Geert
Weidner, Martin
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
cemmap working paper, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice CWP01/15
Abstract: 
This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes.
Subjects: 
Partial identification
duration model
randomized experiment
treatment effect
JEL: 
C14
C41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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