Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128766
Authors: 
Baumgartner, Josef
Hofer, Helmut
Kaniovski, Serguei
Schuh, Ulrich
Url, Thomas
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
WIFO Working Papers 224
Abstract: 
In this paper we develop a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort, we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform six alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include two population projections with high life expectancy and with low fertility, a dynamic activity rate scenario, two scenarios with a stable fiscal balance of social security and an alternative pension indexation, and a scenario with higher productivity growth.
Subjects: 
Economic growth
aging
Austria
JEL: 
C6
E2
O4
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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