Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128527
Authors: 
Felipe, Jesus
Dacuycuy, Connie
Lanzafame, Matteo
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
ADB Economics Working Paper Series 419
Abstract: 
From 1962 to 2013, the People's Republic of China's (PRC's)agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC's aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that we can use it for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). We also estimate that the PRC's employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today's rich economies, by 2042-2048.
Subjects: 
agricultural employment
People's Republic of China
structural transformation
JEL: 
O13
O53
Q10
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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