Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128442
Authors: 
Reinhart, Carmen M.
Reinhart, Vincent
Trebesch, Christoph
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 5737
Abstract: 
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.
Subjects: 
commodity prices
capital flows
financial crises
sudden stops
JEL: 
E30
E44
F44
F60
G01
N10
N20
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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