Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128384
Authors: 
Lehmann, Robert
Wohlrabe, Klaus
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 5686
Abstract: 
This paper looks into the ’fine print’ of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for the period from 1996 to 2014 and a data set consisting of 175 monthly indicators, we evaluate which indicators get selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard indicators like turnovers, as well as a small number of survey results, get selected frequently by the algorithm and are therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply that never get chosen by the boosting approach at all.
Subjects: 
boosting
economic forecasting
industrial production
JEL: 
C53
E17
E37
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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