Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128085
Authors: 
Gaggl, Paul
Kaufmann, Sylvia
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper, Study Center Gerzensee 14.03
Abstract: 
We analyze quarterly occupation-level data from the US Current Population Survey for 1976-2013. Based on common cyclical employment dynamics, we identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of "routine" and "non-routine" jobs. After decomposing the cyclical dynamics into a cluster-specific ("structural") and an occupationspecific ("idiosyncratic") component, we detect significant structural breaks in the systematic dynamics of both clusters around 1990. We show that, absent these breaks, employment in the three "jobless recoveries" since 1990 would have recovered significantly more strongly than observed in the data, even after controlling for observed idiosyncratic shocks.
Subjects: 
employment polarization
jobless recoveries
factor model
JEL: 
J21
E32
E24
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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