Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/127402
Authors: 
Dovern, Jonas
Huber, Florian
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper Series, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics 585
Abstract: 
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
Subjects: 
GVAR
recession forecast
QPS
probability forecast
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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