Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/123799
Authors: 
Ranganathan, Shyam
Swain, Ranjula Bali
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper, Department of Economics, Uppsala University 2014:10
Abstract: 
Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing estimated parameters, we find that limiting the burden of emission reduction to the top 25 global emitters, does not increase their encumbrance. In absence of emission cuts, technology and preferences for environmental quality have to improve by at least 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent if the emission target has to be met by 2020.
Subjects: 
Sustainable Development Goals
dynamical systems
Bayesian
greenhouse gases
JEL: 
C51
C52
C53
C61
Q01
Q50
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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