Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/123798 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2014
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 2014:9
Verlag: 
Uppsala University, Department of Economics, Uppsala
Zusammenfassung: 
A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.
Schlagwörter: 
Demographic transition
Human Development
dynamical systems
Bayesian
data-driven
GDP
child mortality
fertility rate
JEL: 
C51
C52
C53
C61
J13
O21
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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