Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/123798
Authors: 
Ranganathan, Shyam
Swain, Ranjula Bali
Sumpter, David J. T.
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper, Department of Economics, Uppsala University 2014:9
Abstract: 
A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We show that reduction in child mortality is best predicted by the level of GDP in a country over the preceding 5 years. Fertility rate decreases when current or predicted child mortality is low, and is weakly dependent on female education and economic growth. As fertility drops, GDP increases producing a cycle that drives the demographic transition.
Subjects: 
Demographic transition
Human Development
dynamical systems
Bayesian
data-driven
GDP
child mortality
fertility rate
JEL: 
C51
C52
C53
C61
J13
O21
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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