Cunado, Juncal Jo, Soojin Perez de Gracia, Fernando
Year of Publication:
Bank of Canada Working Paper 2015-23
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. The main results suggest that economic activity and prices respond very differently to oil price shocks depending on their type. In addition, a country's oil-importing and -exporting status in the world oil market affects the transmission of shocks. Finally, subsample analysis shows a possible structural break in Japan and South Korea for all three types of oil shocks.
Econometric and statistical methods International topics