Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/123641
Authors: 
Asongu, Simplice A.
Nwachukwu, Jacinta C.
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
AGDI Working Paper WP/14/032
Abstract: 
The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.
Subjects: 
Arab Spring
Political Instability
Timing
Economic Growth
JEL: 
N17
O11
O20
O47
P52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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