Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/118005
Authors: 
Bigano, Andrea
Berrittella, Maria
Roson, Roberto
Tol, Richard S.J.
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 127.2004
Abstract: 
This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions.
Subjects: 
Climate change
Computable general equilibrium models
Tourism
JEL: 
D58
L83
Q51
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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