Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/114441
Authors: 
Siegenthaler, Michael
Graff, Michael
Mannino, Massimo
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
KOF Working Papers, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich 368
Abstract: 
While Switzerland's recent growth of employment was high in historical and international perspective, the reasons for this "job miracle" were not well understood. As the "miracle" was not anticipated by economic forecasters, it consequently resulted in systematic and persistent forecast errors. This paper shows that the "miracle" is related to a substantial increase in the labor intensity of economic activity. To this end, we present a number of stylized facts reflecting shifts and structural changes that affected the Swiss economy around 2000. Then, we discuss potential drivers of the "miracle" which are consistent with these facts. Finally, we demonstrate how they contribute to understand why, during the last ten years, forecasters systematically underestimated the growth of domestic employment. Finally, we highlight that immigration was not only a consequence of the "miracle", but also an important cause, as it created additional jobs in Switzerland by raising local demand for goods and, most importantly, services.
Subjects: 
Labor market
Swiss job miracle
employment forecasts
free movement of persons
migration
local multipliers
JEL: 
C52
E24
J21
J61
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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