Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/110850
Authors: 
Henzel, Steffen
Lehmann, Robert
Wohlrabe, Klaus
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 5336
Abstract: 
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each quarter. It appears that regional survey results in particular improve forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional indicators. Hard indicators from the German manufacturing sector and the Composite Leading Indicator for Europe also deliver useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter.
Subjects: 
nowcasting
regional gross domestic product
bridge equations
regional economic forecasting
mixed frequency
JEL: 
C22
C52
C53
E37
R11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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