Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/110624 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2015
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
FinMaP-Working Paper No. 40
Verlag: 
Kiel University, FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance, Kiel
Zusammenfassung: 
We document using the ZEW panel of German stock market forecasters that weak forecasters tend to be overconfident in the sense that they provide extreme forecasts and their confidence intervals are less likely to contain eventual realizations. Moderate filters based on forecast accuracy over short rolling windows are somewhat successful in improving predictability. While poor performance can be due to various factors, a filter based on a prior tendency to provide extreme forecasts also improves predictability.
Schlagwörter: 
Overconfidence
Forecasting Performance
Stock Market
JEL: 
G02
G17
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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