Caporale, Guglielmo Maria Alessi, Matteo Colli, Stefano Di Lopez, Juan Sergio
Year of Publication:
CESifo Working Paper 5253
This paper uses data from a panel of more than 400 Italian banks for the period 2001 - 2012 to examine the main determinants of loan loss provision (LLP), which are classified as either discretionary (income smoothing, capital management, signalling) or non-discretionary (related to the business cycle). The results suggest that LLP in Italian banks is driven mainly by non-discretionary components, especially during the recession of 2008-2012, and is consistent with a countercyclical behavior of LLP. Further, it is generally less pro cyclical (although not during the recent economic crisis) in the case of local banks: since their loans are more collateralised, their behaviour is more strongly affected by supervisory activity, their initial coverage ratio being lower than for other banks.
loan loss provision bank lending financial system cyclicality