Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/107901
Authors: 
de Bruijn, Bert
Franses, Philip Hans
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 15-032/III
Abstract: 
An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the unpredictable components, which may be viewed as the personal expertise of the earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track records, it is possible to predict the future track record of individual forecasters.
Subjects: 
Earnings Forecasts
Earnings Announcements
Financial Markets
Financial Analysts
JEL: 
G17
G24
M41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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