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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2014
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 14-154/VIII
Verlag: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Zusammenfassung: 
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is probabilistic and subject to error. We apply the model to scheduling choices of commuters and demonstrate that memory constraints lead to sub-optimal choices. We analytically and numerically show how memory-based adaptive expectations substantially increase commuters' willingness-to-pay for reductions in travel time variability, relative to the rational expectations outcome.
Schlagwörter: 
Memory
Transience
Expectation formation
Adaptive expectations
Retrieval Accuracy
Scheduling
Value of Reliability
JEL: 
A12
D84
R41
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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